The European session is going to be pretty empty on the data front with no market moving releases. The main events will be all in the American session when we will get a few US economic indicators and Scott Bessent's confirmation hearing before Senate at 15:30 GMT/10:30 ET.
13:30 GMT/08:30 ET - US Jobless Claims
The US Jobless Claims continue to be one of the most important releases to follow every week as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market.
Initial Claims remain inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022, while Continuing Claims continue to hover around cycle highs although we’ve seen some easing recently.
This week Initial Claims are expected at 210K vs. 201K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1871K vs 1867K prior.
13:30 GMT/08:30 ET - US December Retail Sales
The US Retail Sales M/M is expected at 0.6% vs. 0.7% prior, while the ex-Autos M/M measure is seen at 0.4% vs. 0.2% prior. The focus will be on the Control Group figure which is expected at 0.4% vs. 0.4% prior.
Consumer spending has been stable which is something you would expect given the positive real wage growth and resilient labour market. We’ve also been seeing a steady pickup in consumer sentiment which suggests that consumers’ financial situation is stable/improving.
Central bank speakers:
- 09:00 GMT - ECB's Patsalides (dove - non voter in Jan)
- 22:00 GMT/18:00 ET - ECB's Centeno (dove - voter)
