The calendar is basically empty for the European session, so the focus will be on the US session ahead when we will get the Canadian CPI report and we will also probably finally hear some monetary policy comments from Fed's Waller.

  • Canada CPI 12:30 GMT (08:30 ET)

The Canadian CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.8% vs. 2.9% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.5% vs. 0.6% prior. The focus will be on the underlying inflation measures though as that’s what the BoC cares most about. The Trimmed-Mean CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.9% vs. 3.1% prior, while the Median CPI Y/Y is seen at 2.7% vs. 2.8% prior. Such readings or even lower should give the BoC enough confidence to deliver the first rate cut in June as they would be within their 1-3% target band.

Canada Inflation Measures
Canada Inflation Measures

  • Fed's Waller (neutral - voter) 13:00 GMT (09:00 ET)

Christopher Waller is a key FOMC member because he’s been a “leading indicator” for changes in Fed’s policy. He was the first one talking about QT in December 2021 and the first one mentioning rate cuts in November 2023. Right now though, the Fed is in a "wait and see" mode and it's unlikely that they will deviate from the current stance before seeing more data. The topic of today's speech is "Economic Outlook" so we should get some comments on monetary policy.

Fed's Waller
Fed's Waller

The other central bank speakers scheduled for today include:

  • Fed's Barkin (neutral - voter) 13:00 GMT (09:00 ET).
  • Fed's Williams (neutral - voter) 13:05 GMT (09:05 ET).
  • Fed's Bostic (hawk - voter) 13:10 GMT (09:10 ET).
  • Fed's Barr (neutral - voter) 15:45 GMT (11:45 ET).
  • BoE's Bailey (neutral - voter) 17:00 GMT (13:00 ET).