Why it's important?
The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts.
In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.
Distribution of forecasts for PCE
PCE Y/Y
- 2.2% (9%)
- 2.1% (66%) - consensus
- 2.0% (25%)
PCE M/M
- 0.2% (85%) - consensus
- 0.1% (15%)
Core PCE Y/Y
- 2.7% (19%)
- 2.6% (81%) - consensus
Core PCE M/M
- 0.3% (71%) - consensus
- 0.2% (29%)
Overall, I don't think that the data this week matters that much as we have the US elections on Tuesday, but it could still move the market and add some more info to the bigger picture.
