On the bank rate vote, here's what the calls are:
- Barclays: 8-1 vote for a hold but minor possibility it could be as much as 6-3
- BofA: 8-1 vote for a hold with risks for a 9-0
- Deustche: 9-0 vote for a hold
- Goldman Sachs: 8-1 vote for a hold
- HSBC: 8-1 vote for a hold
- JP Morgan: 8-1 vote for a hold
- Morgan Stanley: 8-1 vote for a hold
- Nomura: 8-1 vote for a hold
Besides Barclays' outside call, there is more or less a general consensus expecting a 8-1 vote with Dhingra set to be the only policymaker to dissent in favour of a rate cut.
As for the central bank's guidance, there is also a consensus is expecting the "gradual" approach to be maintained. In essence, the language will mostly be the same as per what we saw in November here.
But amid recent developments in the UK economy, the calls for next year are differing. While most are anticipating quarterly rate cuts at the moment, there are a few standouts.
Barclays is seeing that the BOE might have to readjust their pacing and "move to sequential 25bp moves in May, June, August and September, leaving the bank rate at 3.50%.. we think a majority of the committee will see this as consistent with policy being neutral".
Meanwhile, Deutsche sees the BOE taking it slow in the first half of next year before accelerating the pace in the second half of the year. The firm sees "three rate cuts in 2H 2025, taking place in August, November and December.. The bank rate settling at 3.25% in Q1-26 – broadly consistent with our view of medium-term r-star".
As for HSBC, the firm sees rate cuts in February, May, August, September, November and December 2025 with a final cut to 3.00% in February 2026.
(h/t @ MNI – Market News)
