Bank of America Global Research discusses the disappointing directional FX calls so far this year.
"Looking at G10 FX so far this year as April ends, it looks far from what the consensus was expecting. Despite USD bearishness, the USD is in the middle of the G10 group. The CHF is the best performer despite being overvalued, followed by GBP despite the strong bearish consensus.. JPY dropped further despite being one of the worst performers last year and market expectations for BoJ policy changes this year.
"Looking ahead, the consensus remains bearish on the USD. Our positioning indicators show a long EURUSD position. Our surveys show an even more negative USD sentiment. We have also been expecting the USD to weaken this year, but EURUSD is already at our end-year 1.10 forecast, while our 1.15 2024 forecast reflects a cautious path. And we have warned that the USD will be choppy on the way down. We believe conflicting forces will continue making it very challenging for G10 FX in the rest of the year," BofA adds.
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