The US dollar is softening today in part due to a Washington Post report that says Trump is considering putting on global tariffs but only on 'critical materials'.
The report includes a relatively short list that highlights three areas and 11 specific things:
Defense industrial supply chain:
- Steel
- Iron
- Aluminum
- Copper
Critical medical supplies:
- Syringes
- Needles
- Vials
- Pharmaceutical materials
Energy production:
- Batteries
- Rare earth minerals
- Solar panels
That's a fleetingly small part of global trade and overall US imports. If that's the list, it wouldn't cause a domestic inflation problem and force the Fed to keep rates higher for longer.
On the weekend, Trump also pushed a single big bill with all his priorities on the border and extending the corporate tax cut. He said it would be paid for with tariffs but this tariff plan would raise minimal amounts of money, and even full global tariffs at high rates wouldn't cover the corporate tax cut.
As for the separate tariffs that Trump has threatened on Mexico, Canada and China, the Washington Post writes:
Many business leaders view those measures as unlikely to ever take effect, but some people familiar with the matter said they could be imposed along with universal tariffs on key sectors.
I'd imagine there will be many threats.
But for me, this all looks USD bearish and positive for risk assets, as it appears that the corporate tax cut and not trade or the deficit are Trump's priorities.
