Well, the odds of a May rate hike was roughly a coin toss heading into today's decision and they certainly will now be skewed towards favouring a likelihood for a move, following the RBA today.
It's going to be a fine line to determine if this means that upcoming meetings will be live. But we may at least get some idea of how live it can be at least. The next Australian CPI release will be on 27 April, before the RBA meets on 3 May.
As such, that is going to be the key release to watch. And I reckon that will be the swing factor as to whether May will be the time for the RBA to move or not - at least in terms of what the market may price in.
Coming into today, most calls are for the RBA to start hiking rates in August. I think that might be brought forward now since the central bank is starting to be open about the prospects on tightening policy sooner rather than later.
A caveat to consider though is that it is election time in Australia. Will the RBA hike rates during this period? As things stand, I would argue politics aren't going to be much of a factor but you can never say never.
