Front month crude is closing in on tomorrow's expiration but buyers got a tough one today with the April contract up $7.42 to $112.12.
The volume in crude is now in the May contract but it was pretty much the same thing there, with prices up $6.50 to $109.53. Both contracts finished at the highs of the day.
There's no real catalyst for today's move and I continue to fret about covid in China. A report said Russian exports could be crimped by as much as 2 mbpd but I'm not sure that's anything new.
What I did find interesting is Saudi Arabia on Sunday saying it will invest substantially to raise output to 13 mbpd from 12 mbpd by 2027. The subtext there is that they've been saying they have 2 million barrels per day of spare capacity and are producing at 10.2 mbpd currently. They've never been able to sustainably produce above 10.5 mbpd and with all this new spending and the long timeline, my thinking is that they're closer to capacity than touted.
In any case, WTI crude oil rose right to the 50% retracement I highlighted earlier, though I hate using a chart just before expiration.
