As Adam pointed out in his earlier post, something is amiss in the oil market. More specifically, there seems to be some leaks in the data. Specifically, the private oil industry data released late on Wednesday.
That data showed a near 10 million barrel inventory build which was well above the 2 million expected. Prior to that release, oil prices moved sharply to the downside for no specific reason, but it foreshadowed the big build.
After the release, instead of continuing to the downside, the price started to squeeze to the upside.
Today the EIA data showed a crude stock gain of 7.648M, still quite hefty and coming off of a 16.283M surge last week is certainly bearish.
Prices moved down modestly into the early afternoon, but remained well above the low from yesterday at $73.77 (the low was at $74.90)
So if there is a leak, traders are leaning into the directional move before the release, and covering after the fact.
Technically, I can say that at the highs today, sellers were also leaning against the 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above). That level comes in at $75.98 currently. The high price reach $75.94.
Going forward, with the 100 hour moving average stalling the rise on Tuesday, and again today, that level will be a risk and bias defining level going forward. Stay below is more bearish. Move above and move toward the 38.2% retracement of the move down to cross at $76.37, the 50% midpoint comes in at $77.18, and the 200 hour moving average comes in at $77.34. Those would be the topside targets.
