10-year Treasury yields are now down to 4.71% after hitting a high of 4.88% early yesterday. The 17 bps retreat has been a catalyst for stocks to gather some reprieve and for the US dollar to retreat across the board as well. It's still a volatile mess in broader markets but the easing up in the bond selling is perhaps helped by the data yesterday too: ADP US September employment +89K vs +153K expected
That being said, the bond market continues to be the key spot to watch as it still holds all the cards in terms of spillover reactions to the dollar and to stocks.
For now, yields have come off the boil as the rout abates. This comes as traders and investors are now eyeing the US jobs report tomorrow and that will be a make or break moment in weighing the balance in the surge in Treasury yields that we have seen so far this week.
Even with the 17 bps decline in 10-year Treasury yields since yesterday, it is still up some 14 bps on the week so far. 🤪
As major central banks now move to the sidelines, it's all about the data in estimating how well economic conditions are holding up. And the non-farm payrolls report is as big as they come.
