In brief, the argument from the analysts at Bank of America is bullish seasonality:

  • if S&P 500 is up YTD to end of October (not there yet, but looks likely!) the index is nearly 80% of the time for the November-December period
    • median returns of 4% and 4.27% respectively
  • pattern occurs even in election years ... November and December are even better in these years
S&P 500 forecast 29 October 2024 2