Yesterday, the price stepped higher but stalled today
The AUDUSD "stepped" higher in a trend move yesterday.
Trend moves tend to step with corrections being shallow. I like to see corrections of 'trend legs" stalling in the 38.2 to 50% retracement ranges. Note the corrections are of the trend legs.
Looking at the 5 minutes chart, the legs are defined by the green numbered circles. The yellow areas define the 38.2-50% retracements of those legs higher. In each of the 4 legs higher into today, the pair stalled near the 38.2 – 50% retracement area. The final one today, tried initially to stall against the 38.2% retracement, but ultimately both it, the 50% and the rising 100 bar moving average (blue line) was broken, and the buyers turned to sellers. The trend was over.
Since moving below those levels, the price has bottomed near a swing low from the Asian session around the 0.7520 area. The price has been choppy between it and the 200 bar moving average on the 5 minutes chart above (green line in the chart above). There have been 4 separate tests of that MA.
As long as the price can remain below that level, the sellers can claim some control. Move above, however, and they should give up - or at least keep a close eye - on the potential for upside momentum (watch 0.7552 as another level to get above on more upside).
Taking a broader look at the hourly chart below, the price spiked above a topside trend line yesterday on its way to the high price today. The correction lower may be forming a right shoulder on a head and shoulders formation. Move below the broken trend line around 0.7520 and the 38.2% retracement of the move up from Wednesday's low at 0.75139 would be more bearish. The 50% comes in at 0.74965. The high from Wednesday and swing low from Thursday come in at 0.74845. All are downside targets on further corrective momentum probing in that direction.
