Dollar sits in a good spot after the gains yesterday
The plunge in cable may have lent to some added bids in the greenback post-BOE but all in all, dollar bulls put in a good shift and now must "go for the kill".
That will be the key thing to watch in the FX space as the week winds down. The charts tell it better so let's get right to that. Here's a look at EUR/USD:
The pair is trading around 1.1550 now but the low yesterday hit 1.1528 and tested the October lows of 1.1525-29. The key support will be a main focus in the sessions ahead, with the US non-farm payrolls potentially providing the trigger for a downside move.
Sellers are firmly in near-term control with the key hourly moving averages @ 1.1580-97.
A look at GBP/USD:
The key level to watch in the post-BOE plunge initially was the 61.8 retracement level @ 1.3573 but as mentioned at the time, a break below that will likely exacerbate further downside for the pair - not least with the BOE upsetting the market rather heavily.
A push below 1.3500 puts into focus the 29-30 September lows @ 1.3412-15, underscoring the vulnerability in cable as we look to wrap up the week.
A look at USD/CAD:
Buyers finally managed a firm push above the 1.2400 mark on the daily close yesterday and that tees up a potential test of the 200-day moving average (blue line) @ 1.2478 now.
Oil prices also fell yesterday on a "sell the fact" play amid the OPEC+ decision, with WTI dipping back below $80. Prices are up 1% on the day to $79.60 but I'd argue that there is scope for a further correction unless buyers pull back above $80 again.
As such, that could be a slight headwind for the loonie, adding to the technical play above.
A look at AUD/USD:
The daily chart shows that it is a pretty straightforward case of the pair topping out at the 200-day moving average (blue line) with the Fed-RBA divergence still part of the picture for now, leading to a test of its 100-day moving average (red line) @ 0.7378.
That will be the key level to watch over the next few sessions with a firm break likely to exacerbate weakness in the aussie, though there is some nearby support from the 50.0 retracement level of the October swing higher @ 0.7363.
A look at NZD/USD:
The upside push seems to have stalled after failing to firmly hold a break above 0.7200 and the exhaustion has led to a test of the 200-day moving average (blue line) in the past few days with sellers now looking to push the agenda.
The key level stands @ 0.7096 so be wary of that ahead of the daily close, with the 38.2 retracement level of the October swing higher offering some nearby support @ 0.7081. But a break below that could see a sharper drop towards the 100-day moving average (red line) next for the pair, and that stands @ 0.7020 currently.
