Modestly higher on the day now
The EURUSD is chopping around in a relatively narrow trading range of 32 pips so far today. The average over the last 22 trading days has been 56 pips. There is room to roam on a break outside the current range.
The low for the day came in at 1.17537. That was just above the low for the week at 1.17512, but below the low from Tuesday at 1.1755 and the low from yesterday at 1.17567. The inability to take out the week's low, is seeing some dip buying into the early North American session. The price is now higher on the day at 1.1776 (the price closed at 1.1770 yesterday).
The London session high today was able to take the EURUSD price briefly above its 100 hour moving average at 1.17827 – the high price reached 1.17859. However the break could not sustain momentum in the price quickly reversed, turning the break buyers, into sellers on the failure.
As a result, the range for the day has been set with the 100 hour moving average above at 1.17827 as the topside hurdle to get above OR, the lows for the week between 1.17512 and 1.17567 as the downside hurdle to get below. On a break of either, look for further momentum.
For the week, the EURUSD closed near 1.1804 last Friday, so the pair is lower, but price action saw lots of up and down chop.
The highs for the week came in on Monday at 1.18239. The price tested the 200 hour MA on that day and found willing sellers. Yesterday (after the ECB decision and ensuing volatility), the price traded to a new week high - and back above the 200 hour MA. The high reached 1.1830, but that break above the Monday high and 200 hour moving average was quickly reversed (illiquid market conditions from the ECB).
On the downside, Monday saw a low at 1.17632. On Tuesday, the low reached 1.1755. On Wednesday the low reach 1.17512, and yesterday the low reach 1.17567 before today's low at 1.17537. That is 5 day's of lows between 1.17512 and 1.17632 (12 pips).
Overall, the bias is negative/bearish below the 100/200 hour MAs, but the floor at the week's lows between 1.17512 and 1.17632 is proving to be a formidable floor that is attracting consistent buying interest (at least for now.)
Taking a broader look at the daily chart, the pair has been moving lower since the May high at 1.22657. June saw the price moved sharply lower. July has seen a very modest range with a tilt more to the downside. The low price for the year from the end of March reached 1.17041. With the current price at 1.1776, that low is certainly within shouting distance. A break below that level, and the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the 2020 low comes in at 1.1694.
