Resistance at 1.1601 to 1.1611 stalled the rallies yesterday.
The EURUSD is trading lower today, and back below the 200 and 100 hour moving averages in the process (green and blue lines in the chart above). The pair got help from sellers near the 50% midpoint of the range since the recent peak on October 28 during trading yesterday. That level came in at 1.1602. The highs stalled near some recent highs centered around 1.16077 level as well (see green numbered circles on the hourly chart above).
The move back below the 200 and 100 hour MAs (and the holding below the 200 hour MA in particular), tilted the bias to the downside. The higher than expected CPI data has helped to push the price to a new session low at 1.15298. That low was just ahead of a swing area between 1.15237 and 1.15282 (see red numbered circles).
The pair has since rebounded back toward the 1.15407 to 1.15455 swing area. Watch the level for resistance sellers. A move back above could see some short term buying, but I would expect sellers against 1.15619 on any additional rebound.
The downside bias has the pair testing the swing lows that have formed from 1.15126 up to 1.15455 since October 6. Ultimately, if the prices to go lower, getting outside of that collection of swing lows would be needed.
Taking a broader look at the daily chart below, of significance is at the highs yesterday, the pair stalled at a key resistance area. The old swing lows going back to September and November 2020 (see chart below) came in between 1.1601 and 1.1611. The high price from yesterday reached 1.16077 between those two levels. Were sellers leaning? It seems so. Those lows from 2020 stick out. Traders like to lean and leaning against those levels on a correction (added to the 50% midpoint from the hourly) makes technical sense.
