October 24, 2016

EURUSD

The range for the day is only 40 pips. The low for the day (in the Asian Pacific session) was within a pip of the low from Friday. That low was the lowest level since March 2016. The high stalled just below 1.0900 (at 1.08992). The pair is lower on the day (closed at 1.0879). Traders had a shot to take the price higher off the double bottom, but could only get a 40 pip rebound. Sellers are in control. If the buyers are to be take seriously, a move back above the shorter term MAs is step 1 at 1.0880 and 1.0885. That is just the start.

Getting and staying above 1.0900 would be another step (then the low from June at 1.0910). If that cannot be done, then look for the Friday/Monday lows to be taken out. The next targets would be 1.0820, 1.0809 and 1.0777 (see chart below).

USDJPY

The USDJPY broke higher in trading today and in the process moved away (once again) the 100 and 200 hour MAs (blue and green lines in the chart above). It also moved above topside trend line resistance and recent highs at 104.19 (close risk now - the underside of trend line is also a risk level). The next targets come between 104.36-46 and then the high at 104.63. A move above that level, will have the pair trading at the highest level since the end of July. The next target on a break above that level will look toward the 105.50 area (50% of the move down from the end of May high).

GBPUSD

An down and up and down and up day for the GBPUSD today. The pair spent most of the London morning hours above the 200 hour MA (green line at 1.2230). In the NY session, that trend line was broken and the price moved down to the underside of the broken channel trend line. The support held there and we are seeing a rotation back toward the 200 hour MA. Will the up and down continue? Or will the 200 (green line) and 100 hour MA (blue line) be taken out and open up the upside for another squeeze. Right now...Buyers against the support are ok (there is a battle going on), but a move back above the MA lines will be needed.

USDCHF

The USDCHF moved above the daily trend line on Friday but failed. Today the price has traded above and below the trend line at 0.99356 and we are currently trading just above it at 0.9938. Being above is bullish technically. What is not as bullish is that the high today stalled at the May high at 0.9955.

So we are above the trend line/below the old high. Friday's spike high at 0.9960 will be another level to get to and through if this pair is going higher. Above that at 0.9989 to 1.0000 will be targeted.

On the downside, watch that trend line below and what happens against it in the new trading day. If the price starts to erode lower, the 50% at 0.9885 will be the next downside target. The market is no stranger to the 50% level. From October 11 to October 20, the price traded above and below the 50% level. Last Thursday, the price moved away. If the bullishness is to continue, that level should not be tested/broken.