Consolidating for 6 days now

Before looking at the recent trading activity (over the last 6 days), the daily chart below shows how in March, the price of the EURGBP corrected higher – testing the 38.2% retracement of the move trend move down from the December high. That level came in at 0.73923. The high for March came in at 0.73841.

In April the high at the beginning of the month stretched to 0.7378 – short of the March high and short of the 38.2% retracement. The subsequent fall, took the price below trend line support (see daily chart above).

However, the last 6 trading days has seen the price consolidate in an up-and-down fashion. The range has a high of 0.7233 and a low 0.71627. Looking at the hourly chart, the swing highs from April 13 to April 20, correspond with swing lows from April 8 to April 10. This makes that area key resistance level for EURGBP traders. A break above should solicit more buyers with 0.72449 and 0.72703 (50% retracement) as the next targets.

On the downside, the 100 hour moving average started to lose its resistance effectiveness on Thursday and Friday of last week. Today in the Asian Pacific/early European session, the 100 hour moving average was tested and held. When the 200 hour moving average and the 0.7223 level held, there was a push back below the 100 hour moving average. That break FAILED (see red area in the hourly chart).

Over the last 4 or so hours, the price has regained the bullish bias above the 100 hour MA (blue line)

BUT......that dreaded 200 hour MA is in the way.

What would make the bullishness stronger would of course be a bullish confirmation via a move above the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above) and the 0.7223-0.72338 consolidation area (yellow area). Ultimately, that is the picture that would make the buyers happy and should be enough to get shorts covering.

Can the EUR take control over the GBP? Can it find the catalyst for a break - UK election jitters, better EU data? Or do we continue to play the range (sell the 200) and buy the 100 hour MA as the close levels to lean against?