Stalls on the first test...
The EURUSD moved down to a low of 1.1915 in the current hour and stalled. The catalyst for the stall was the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart. That level comes in at 1.19138. Getting within 1.2 pips of the MA is close enough on the first look at least. Risk can defined and limited.
What would make the dip buyers happy now? With the price trending lower from the early January high, the broken 38.2% at 1.19466 would likely be a close ceiling in trading today, with a move above indicative of more bullish potential.
On a break of the 100 bar MA (on the 4-hour) at 1.19138, the 50% of the move up from the December 12 low comes in at 1.19028. That is also near the swing high from December 20 and a natural support target (at 1.1900). That area is the next key support for the pair.
Looking at the daily chart below, the move down in the early days of 2018 started from the peak at 1.2088. That high stalled just 4 pips from the 2017 high. Failure to get above that level was the catalyst for the last 3 days of declines from a technical perspective.
Today, the pair is moving away from the November high at 1.19605 (that is another resistance level above). The underside of the broken trend line cuts across at 1.1896 - making the 1.1900 area a key level below (see daily chart below).
Summary: The sellers have taken the price down for the 3rd day in a row. However, the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart is giving dip buyers a reason to stick a toe in the water as risk can be defined and limited against the level. A corrective move higher will target the 1.1946 level which is home to the broke 38.2% (see 4-hour). The 1.1960 is the November swing high and will be another corrective area.
