Awaits the retail sales at 0930 GMT.
The UK retail sales will be out at the bottom of the hour and the GBPUSD seems to be continuing to buy time between moving averages.
Looking at the hourly chart above, the pair stalled yesterday near a topside trend line and the 61.8% of the move down from the November high (at 1.32125 area). The fall lower from that peak stalled near the 200 and 100 hour MAs (blue and green lines) before trading up and down into the NY close.
Today, we say more of the ups and downs in the Asian session. It was only in this current hourly bar where we say a break to the downside. However that fall stalled once again near the 200 and 100 hour MAs at 1.31369 and 1.31422. On the topside the ceiling has been near the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.3179. That level is also home to the 50% midpoint. We currently trade between at 1.3158, with the market looking for the push.
On a move lower the 100 day MA at 1.31155 will be another bearish clue that sellers are trying to take more control. Now we have been above and below that MA on 4 of the last 7 days without much runaway success, but we have to give the sellers the benefit of the doubt on a move below. 1.30848 and 1.30607 are other downside targets.
On a move higher (on stronger data), would look to test the topside trend line at 1.3197 and then the high for the week (and 61.8%) at 1.32125. Last weeks high (and the 2 week high) comes in at 1.3228.
The market has been looking for a push. We will see what the numbers bring us....
