The dollar is getting kicked today as the global concerns and lower stock prices has made the expectations of the Fed changing course/words/sentiment more and more unlikely.
The EURUSD is moviing above the 1.2500-08 level. Tested some of the highs from Nov.
From a technical perspective, the pair held against the 100 hour MA yesterday (blue line in the chart above) and also near the 50% of the Nov/Dec trading range. The pair has broken above the 1.2500-1.2508 level today – getting outside that consolidation area and move close too the high levels from November at the 1.25769 level. Above that the high from November comes in at 1.25989. The price made a break above the 1.2500-1.2508 area. This is now support for the pair.
As I type,the price of the EURUSD is moving down toward the 1.2500-1.2508 aree.a the low has moved down to 1.2511. The stock market has come back a little in the last few minutes.
One must understand that the markets we normally trade will be influenced by many things. The USDRUB is a focus. The stock market is a focus. Oil prices are a focus.
The ebbs and flows have the potential to be volatile. So if you do venture in the waters understand the tides of fortune can swing. What does that mean for the average retail currency trader out there? If you must trade, trade smalller. If you must trade do not love your position but like it. If you must trade do not be afraid to take profit or partial profit. If you must trader do not be afraid to take a loss. If you must trade, find levels technical levels you can lean against. The 1.25000 area is an area that has attracted energy in the past. If it can stay above that level, that is good. It is not time to be a hero. If you are a professional traders who has the experience in these types of markets, you are on your own and can take care of yourselves.
So far, the 1.25000-08 is holding the line which is my line in the sand for the short term.
