The kiwi is in a good spot, but not this good
I've always found that the time around Christmas and New Years is a good time for retail traders to get an edge.
The rule of thumb in thin liquidity is that everything continues in the same direction it was previously headed. It's a drift and sometimes it goes a bit too far.
Last year it was selling in stock markets that took on a mind of its own but there are a multitude of assets where this is always the case.
This year, I think the kiwi is a good candidate. The outlook has certainly brightened but the rally has gotten a bit ahead of itself, especially in the past few days.
The chart above shows the NZD/USD RSI and -- as Bloomberg points out -- it's now at the most-overbought since 2003/04 when it also overshot around New Years.
