The major currencies are scrunched together
The NZD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest in the morning snapshot as North American traders enter for the day. The EUR is mostly lower after they kept policy unchanged. The Lagarde presser will start at 8:30 AM ET. The major currencies are a scrunched together ahead of the first read of the US GDP. The Atlanta Fed GDP model fell to 0.2% yesterday. That was the low of all their estimates over the progression of the quarter. The economists have the number pegged much higher at 2.7% but with a large range of expectations (from about 0.5% to 5%. So it's anyone's guess. The report will be releases at 8:30 AM along with the initial claims. Stocks are higher. Ford shares are up 7.7% in pre-market trading after better earnings and guidance. Apple and Amazon earnings will be released after the close - completing the earnings cycle for the quarter of the biggest of names (Microsoft, Apple, Netflix, Amazon, Facebook, Alphabet). House Dems are meeting with hope for a consensus after all the horse jockeying of late (esp among their own moderate Dems Manchin and Sinema). US rates are higher, with a flatter yield curve. The 2-10 year spread has come down from about 113.4 pips two days ago to 101.7 basis points today.
In other markets:
- Spot gold is trading up $6.20 from +0.35% at $1801.90 (back above $1800).
- Spot silver is up two cents or 0.08% and $24.05
- WTI crude oil futures are trading at $81.50
- Bitcoin is back above the $60,000 level at $61,073
In the premarket trading for US stocks, the futures are implying a higher opening for the three major indices:
- Dow industrial average +89 points after yesterday's -266.19 point decline
- S&P index +14.5 points after yesterday's -23.13 point decline
- NASDAQ index +86 points after yesterday's fractional 0.12 point gain
In the European equity markets, the major indices are mixed ahead of the Lagarde press conference:
- German Dax, -0.25%
- France's CAC, +0.4%
- UK's FTSE 100 -0.3%
- Spain's Ibex, +0.25%
- Italy's FTSE MIB +0.3%
In the US debt market, the two and five year are up over four basis points. The longer end is up more modestly as the market positions for a tightening is an slower growth as a result (even if not really near).
The benchmark 10 year yields in Europe are also tracking higher today:
