Buyers trying to push but the 2 month range remains intact
The buyers in the USDJPY are desperately trying to jump start the pair higher after the trend like move lower into the March low. How successful are the buyers? Well, it is a start and Friday tried to make a break for greener, more bullish pastures for the pair. However, the price momentum stalled. So we should not get too bullish yet. The attack on Syria can also throw some flight of safety into the JPY on Monday. We will see, but the technical levels are fairly clear for the bulls and the bears.
The bullish case for the USDJPY.
- Since April 5th, the price moved above a downward sloping trend line and has closed above that line since that day (7 days). The line comes in at 106.55 (and moving lower).
- On Friday, the price extended above the April high at 107.486 but momentum slowed.
- The price remains above the March high at 107.286
That combination is indicative of buyers trying to get "bulled up" for the pair.
The cautiousness comes from:
- On February 14th the USDJPY moved below 107.90 level. On Friday the pair moved to a high 107.774. That level is a key level above to get above. It could not on Friday.
- The price remains in a two month range
- The correction off the lows from March have not reached the 38.2% of the move down from the November high.
Summary:
The "bulled up" is more of a "buying low" trade, and because of a 3 week move higher that broke a downward sloping trend line. Stay above the trend line keeps that hope alive. There is room to roam higher.
The caution is that the price stays in a 2 month range. A move below the trend line next week will not be bullish and should lead to more downside potential
