Bank of Canada expected to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday
The Fed is not the only central bank on the schedule tomorrow. The Bank of Canada rate decision is due tomorrow at 10 AM ET. However, unlike the Fed which is expected to cut by 25 basis points, the BOC is expected to keep rates unchanged.
The USDCAD has been moving lower since October 10th. On that day, the price fell below both the 100 and 200 hour MAs.
Since, then the price has not had an hourly bar close above each of those moving averages. Bearish.
The last six or so trading days has seen the price move sideways with a modest downward bias. The sideways price actino has allowed the trailing 100 hour MA to catch up to the price (see blue line).
Today, the price tested that MA over the last 4 hourly bars. The last hourly bar did trade above the MA line (currently at 1.30678), but just barely. There still is no close above.
If the buyers are to take more control, the price needs to extend and stay above that moving average level. That woulld give a tilt to the buyers finally.
If the price can stay above, the 200 hour moving average remains a topside target at 1.30917. That will also be the next key target for the pair. Needless to say, it too is an barometer for the buyers and sellers. Move above and the bias tilts a little more to the upside.
Looking at the daily chart below, the price still remains above the 2019 low price from July at 1.3015. The low today reached 1.3041. The pair at the high, is testing the old swing low from February 1, 2019 at 1.3068. That level, coupled with the 100 hour moving average which is at the same level, would give few positives for the buyers.
It is hard to pick a bottom, but the technicals do help confirm a potential bottom, by turning the bias around through moves above technical levels like the 100 and 200 hour MAs. The USDCAD's price still remains below those MA levels, but the price is also testing one of those levels now. It is up to the buyers to push the price through IF they want to tilt the technical bias a little more to the upside. If they fail, the sellers remain in complete control.
