The pair has been trading back up following a rebound in risk sentiment
And it looks like the notion of a false break to the downside is holding up for now. I mentioned yesterday here that if equities come back strongly then the pair may head back towards a range of 105.32 to 107.32, and here we are now.
You can't really discount the impact risk sentiment can have on the pair - especially over the last few weeks.
The latest move stalls at the 200-hour MA, and unless buyers are able to break above that we may see a bit of consolidation until the next catalyst. Asian equities are continuing its recovery, which bodes well for the pair if US and European stocks are able to do the same later today.
But the bigger picture still points to a move to the downside. We're seeing lower highs and lower lows since the start of the year, and until it breaks that pattern I don't see a reason why things should change.
