The AUDUSD last Thursday, moved above and then based against it's 100 hour MA (blue line) at 0.7328 before reaching a high at 0.7366. That high did stall ahead of a swing area from March 4 and March 7 between 0.7374 to 0.73799. Early sellers leaned ahead of that target area.
The subsequent fall on Friday, initially stalled near a cluster of support defined by the 38.2%, 100/200 hour MAs and the 200 day MA, before breaking lower into the NY afternoon session.
Today, the momentum to the downside continued with a swing area between 0.7234 and 0.7247 being broken, BUT the 100 day MA at 0.7225 holding support (the 61.8.% of the move up from the Feb 24 low was also in that area at 0.72266.
The subsequent move to the upside has seen the price move back toward swing highs from the Asian and London session at 0.72592 level, but stalled ahead of those highs. The NY session high just reached 0.7255.
What now?
If the price probing to the upside is to continue off the 100 day MA level, getting above 0.7259 followed by the 50% midpoint of the move up from the February 24 low at 0.72674 is required. Failure to do that, and the technical tilt/bias is still to the downside.
Having said that, there is downside support to get to and through. Buyers against the 100 day MA (and the lower swing area), are still in the game for more upside momentum. Sellers will need to get to and through those levels. If they can, it would open the downside door for further momentum in that direction (not a lot of support until 0.71679 on the hourly chart).
