The AUDUSD moved lower in the Asian session and in the process fell below a swing area near 0.63057. However, the momentum could not be sustained to the low price from last Friday at 0.62858. The price started a move back to the upside.
The subsequent bounce took the AUDUSD price above a swing area between 0.63269 and 0.63344 (see the lower yellow area on the chart below), and also its 100-hour moving average at 0.6336 (blue line in the chart below). That bounce failed ahead of its 200-hour moving average 0.63622. A new rotation back to retest the 100-hour moving average (blue line on the chart below) and high of the swing area (lower yellow area) ensued, but so far that MA (and swing area) has held support.
What next?
If the 100-hour MA can continue to hold support, a rotation back higher toward the 200-hour moving average could be expected. If that moving average can be broken it opens the door for further upside momentum (toward the high price from yesterday's trade).
The ball is in the buyer's court above the 100-hour moving average, but those buyers have more work to do. A break back below the 100-hour moving average - and the low of the swing area at 0.63269 - would have traders looking back down toward the 0.63057 level and the low price from last week at 0.62858.
