AUDUSD moves up but runs into the 100 hour MA

The AUDUSD AUD/USD The AUD/USD is the currency pair encompassing the Australian dollar of the Commonwealth of Australia (symbol $, code AUD), and the dollar of the United States of America (symbol $, code USD). The pair’s rate indicates how many US dollars are needed in order to purchase one Australian dollar. For example, when the AUD/USD is trading at 0.7500, it means 1 Australian dollar is equivalent to 0.75 US dollars. The Australian dollar (AUD) is the world’s fifth most traded currency, whilst the US Dollar The AUD/USD is the currency pair encompassing the Australian dollar of the Commonwealth of Australia (symbol $, code AUD), and the dollar of the United States of America (symbol $, code USD). The pair’s rate indicates how many US dollars are needed in order to purchase one Australian dollar. For example, when the AUD/USD is trading at 0.7500, it means 1 Australian dollar is equivalent to 0.75 US dollars. The Australian dollar (AUD) is the world’s fifth most traded currency, whilst the US Dollar Read this Term moved higher in reaction to the overall dollar selling after the US jobs report.

That report report showed a stronger nonfarm payroll jobs (311K versus 205K estimate), but hourly earnings were lower and the unemployment rate was higher than expected levels.

Also in play (and probably more important given its potential impact on the Fed) is the financial market concerns as a result of the Silicon Valley Bank situation. They had to take a $2 billion loss on their bond portfolio as deposits declined, losses mounted, and they needed to sell bonds at a loss.

All of which is leading to a flight to safety. The two year yield Yield A yield represents the earnings generated by an investment or security over a certain time period. Yields are typically displayed in percentage terms and are in the form of interest or dividends received from it.These figures do not include the price variations, which separates it from the total return. Consequently, a yield applies to various stated rates of return on stocks, fixed income instruments such as bonds, and other types of investment products.Yields can be calculated as a ratio or as A yield represents the earnings generated by an investment or security over a certain time period. Yields are typically displayed in percentage terms and are in the form of interest or dividends received from it.These figures do not include the price variations, which separates it from the total return. Consequently, a yield applies to various stated rates of return on stocks, fixed income instruments such as bonds, and other types of investment products.Yields can be calculated as a ratio or as Read this Term is down close to 20 basis points to 4.701%. The 10 year yield is down -15.3 basis points to 3.769%

So how does this impact the AUDUSD?

If it follows the dollar, the price should go lower. However, if it follows flight to safety flows, the AUD can be impacted negatively.

As a result following the technicals helps to clear the fog from the counter fundamental storylines.

The technicals show the consensus of the "market" traders who are reacting to the fundamentals. They help to define the bias.

Looking at the hourly chart above, the AUDUSD moved higher after the jobs report with the overall dollar weakness. However, the price did find willing sellers near the falling 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above). That level comes in at 0.66278. The high price reached 0.66325.

In addition to that level, the swing highs from yesterday and Wednesday also formed a ceiling between 0.6628 and 0.66356.

So although the price moved above the 100 hour moving average briefly, it remained within the swing highs from both yesterday and Wednesday. There is some reluctance to move higher.

Technically if the buyers are to take more control, getting above that area along with the 100 hour moving average would be required. Absent that and the buyers are not winning.

Also in play is the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the high last Friday. That level comes in at 0.66442 and is the minimum retracement level that would need to be broken if the buyers are to take control.

So overall, the verdict is still out with regard to the AUDUSD. What's the aforementioned levels for bias changing clues. If they cannot be breached, the sellers remain in control.