In the North American morning report, I wrote on the AUDUSD:
The AUDUSD is also breaking [lower] and fell below its 50% midpoint of the move up from the August low to the September high. That midpoint level comes in at 0.66451 and is now close resistance. On the downside the 200 day moving average comes in at 0.66277. Back in September, the price tested that moving average level and found willing buyers. That increases the levels importance. Will buyers come in against that level again? If the level is broken I would expect the technical buyers against the 200 day MA to turn to sellers. A move above the 50% at 0.6645 and staying above gives buyers some added confidence.
The price action has indeed seen buyers against its 200-day moving average. The low price on the day comes in at 0.66285 just above the 200-day moving average at 0.66276.
What next?
Holding supported against the 200 day moving average is not a huge surprise as traders look to define and limit risk against key technical levels like that daily moving average.
However, to give those dip buyers confidence, a move above a higher level is needed. On the AUDUSD chart, that level comes against the 50% midpoint of the move up from the August low to the September high at 0.6645. So far the price has been able to stay below that level with a high price and 0.66423.
So an intraday battle is ongoing between the buyers and sellers between key technical levels. If the price breaks below the 200-day moving average and then the low of a swing area at 0.66189, it would open the door for a run toward the 61.8% retracement at 0.6575.
Conversely, if buyers can exert more upside momentum and get above the 50% midpoint, that would lead to more upside probing with the low price from last week at 0.66578 another level to get above to give the buyers more confidence.
For now the technical levels are doing their job at technical support and resistance.
