The AUDUSD moved higher during Monday's trade stepping toward the 38.2% retracement of the move down from last week's high to last week's low. That level came in at 0.67047. The high price yesterday reached 0.67083 before stalling and moving sideways into the close. The closing price yesterday was at 0.6699.
In trading today, the Asian session saw a move back above the 38.2% retracement to a new high at 0.67092. The 100-hour moving average (blue line on the chart above) was falling at the time and at 0.6714. Buyers could not push through that moving average. The price moved back below the 38.2% retracement, and buyers turned to sellers.
Helping the downside was weaker China data. Westpac consumer sentiment was also weaker at -7.9% versus 9.4% last month.
Looking at the hourly chart, the fall today was not without its ups and downs. However, once the price reached a swing area near 0.6649 – 0.66526, the selling slowed, and the price consolidated just above that area. The price action at the low is similar to what we saw near the highs from yesterday as it tested the 38.2% retracement in the New York session yesterday.
What now?
A move below 0.66492 would have traders looking toward the low price from May 4 at 0.66399 and the low price from yesterday at 0.66349. Move below that level and the door opens for further selling with 0.6618 – 0.6625 and then toward the 0.6600 area.
Conversing hold this area, and to the sellers turned back to buyers and head back toward the falling 100-hour moving average? Friday move down, Monday moved up, and Tuesday moved down. The pattern is for a move back higher, but if the price moves below 0.6649, the sellers add more control.
