The AUDUSD has moved up and down today but is trading marginally lower on the day. The low - reached in the last hourly bar - moved to a new intraday low of 0.6649. That took the price closer to the 200 hour MA at 0.66457 and near the low of a swing area between 0.6649 to 0.66526. Below the 200 hour MA is the rising 100 hour MA at 0.66389. That area will be a key barometer for both buyers and sellers today. Move below is more bearish. Stay above is more bullish.
Recall from yesterday, the price of the AUDUSD bottomed just above the 100 hour MA (blue line) ahead of the RBA rate decision where they surprised with a 25 basis point hike to 3.85% from 3.60%.
It would take a move below the 200 and 100 hour moving average to tilt the short/medium term bias back to the downside today. On a break below, traders will target 0.66188 – 0.66253 swing area (see red numbered circles on the chart above). Move below that area and traders with start to target the low prices from April between 0.6591 and 0.65945, and then the extreme at 0.6573.
On the topside, a move higher would 1st target the swing area between 0.6676 and 0.66806. The high price today stalled against the law of that swing area (see green numbered circles). Above that and the 50% retracement of the range since April 14, followed by the 61.8% retracement of 0.67164 and the 200 day moving average at 0.67323 would all be upside targets.
The RBA surprise yesterday and pushed the pair higher but there was a limit to that upside (at the 61.8% retracement). The corrective moved to the downside has taken the price back to where they should be supported and so far there has been support. However now the FOMC is in play, and that can shift the applecart once again. If the Fed continues to be more hawkish and does not give-in on inflation risks, we could see a break lower. Conversely if they do show some signs of an "Uncle" moment (i.e., we have had enough, it is time to wait), the move back to the upside may be restarted.
