USD
- The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting and dropped the tightening bias in the statement.
- The US PCE came in line with expectations.
- The US ADP and the US Job Openings missed expectations, followed by weaker than expected US Jobless Claims.
- The latest US ISM Manufacturing PMI missed expectations by a big margin remaining in contraction with the US ISM Services PMI following suit but holding on in expansion.
- The US Consumer Confidence missed expectations across the board.
- The market expects the first rate cut in June.
AUD
- The RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected with the central bank maintaining the usual tightening bias and data dependent language.
- The recent Monthly CPI report missed expectations across the board which was a welcome development for the RBA.
- The latest labour market report missed expectations by a big margin.
- The wage price index surprised to the upside as wage growth in Australia remains strong.
- The latest Australian PMIs showed the Manufacturing PMI falling back into contraction while the Services PMI jumped back into expansion.
- The market expects the first rate cut in August.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD eventually bounced around the key 0.65 support zone and extended the rally into the swing high at 0.6623. A successful break above this level should open the door for a rally into the 0.69 resistance next. We can also notice that the price is a bit overstretched as depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving average. In such instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some consolidation before the next move.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that in case we get a pullback, the buyers will have the first support around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level where they will also find the red 21 moving average for confluence. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the Fibonacci level to increase the bearish bets into new lows.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see more closely the recent price action with the pair now trading inside a rising channel with the red 21 moving average acting as dynamic support. A break to the downside should trigger a selloff into the Fibonacci level with the sellers piling in with more conviction.
Upcoming Events
Today we conclude the week with the US NFP report.
