The AUDUSD has been trading up and down today. Fundamentally, the CPI for the 2nd quarter was released, with the data showing QoQ inflation dipping to 1.8% from 2.1% last quarter. The trimmed mean came in as expected but above the 1st quarter's 1.4% increase (rose 1.5%).
Technically, looking at the daily chart, the price dipped down to a low of 0.6912. That was just above the broken 38.2% of the move down from the June high at 0.69108. Buyers leaned. Close support today and going forward.
On the topside, the high from yesterday moved to a high of 0.69827. That was just above (1 pip above) the 50% retracement. Sellers leaned. Close resistance today and going forward.
The current price is at 0.6930.
Drilling to the hourly chart, the rising 100 hour MA has caught up to the price as the buyers and sellers battle it out in on the daily chart. That moving average comes in at 0.6933. The current price is below the level with the rising 200 hour MA below at 0.6893 as the next target.
The price of the AUDUSD moved last above the 200 hour MA on July 15 (see green line).
A break below the 200 hour MA through the FOMC fireworks would add to the bearish bias. A more hawkish Fed (think inflation expectations not necessarily the path of rates) could see stocks move lower, higher rates and a higher dollar (lower AUDUSD).
Conversely, if the Fed chat is more toward higher rates, but expectations that inflation may finally start to move down should keep stocks supported (risk on) and move into the AUDUSD (take out the 50% level). The door opens for more upside with risk at the 0.6964 on a break (and one that fails).
