After the news of BlackRock filing a Bitcoin ETF on June 15th, we saw the cryptocurrency surging in value going briefly from the 25K level to the 31K one. Bitcoin resilience has been remarkable given the hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations and the regulatory crackdowns we saw in the past weeks/months. The struggle to break above the 31K level though suggests that we might be at a point where if the risk sentiment turns negative, Bitcoin can selloff pretty hard. In fact, despite the positive risk sentiment in the markets due to the miss in the US CPI report and the soft-landing vibes, Bitcoin broke below a key support level which may signal a bigger selloff into the previous support at 25231.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that after failing to break above the 31K resistance multiple times, Bitcoin started to lose its bullish momentum and the price eventually fell below the key support level at 29500 that defined the month-long range. The bias has now switched to bearish, and the sellers will look for key levels where they can lean on to extend the fall into the 25231 support.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the first try for the sellers should come right at the broken support turned resistance at the 29500 level. In fact, we can also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average for confluence. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking above the resistance with conviction to start piling in and target the 31K level again.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that if there won’t be enough bullish momentum to push the price into the resistance, the sellers may enter also when the price breaks below the recent swing low at 29070.
Upcoming Events
Today the Fed is expected to hike by 25 bps and the market will be focused on signals of future policy moves and if it’s likely that the Fed will pause or continue to hike. Tomorrow, the focus will switch on the US Jobless Claims where a big miss should weigh on risk sentiment and lead to more downside for Bitcoin, whole a big beat should support the cryptocurrency in the short-term. Finally, on Friday, we will see the latest US PCE and ECI reports with the market likely to be more attentive to the wages data.
