Fundamental Overview
Bitcoin rallied strongly over the weekend after a failed attempt to assassinate the former US President Trump. The market reacted positively to the event because he’s been a supporter of the crypto industry and Trump’s odds of winning the election soared.
Moreover, we got the news that the German government finally offloaded all of its Bitcoin holdings on July 12th, so that bearish driver is now in the rear-view mirror. Also, the old crypto exchange Mt. Gox has been repaying its old clients since last week, so even this news should now be priced in.
So, we are left with lots of bullish drivers and very few bearish cases. On the macro level, the data last week showed that the US disinflationary trend is intact and that the labour market remains resilient. So, all else being equal, we are getting rate cuts into resilient growth which should ultimately be bullish for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that Bitcoin eventually managed to rally back above the key 60K zone leaving behind a fakeout. This is generally a reversal signal, so the buyers might have a bit more confidence now to start targeting a new cycle high.
The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back below the 60K zone and the major trendline to regain control and increase the bearish bets into new lows.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we got some breakouts over the weekend as the price broke through the downward trendline and the 60K zone before extending the rally into the 63K level as the bullish momentum increased.
From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the 60K support where they will also find the upward trendline for confluence. The sellers, on the other hand, might step in around the 63-64K area to position for a drop back into the 60K support and look for a breakout to the downside to increase the bearish bets into new lows.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have another minor trendline defining the current bullish momentum. That could be another support for the buyers as it’s all about getting an entry now that the market switched to a bullish bias. If the price were to fall below the 58K level, the bullish bias would be invalidated. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today we have Fed Chair Powell speaking at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C. Tomorrow, we get the US Retail Sales report. On Wednesday, we have Fed’s Waller speaking and on Thursday we conclude with the latest US Jobless Claims figures.
