Fundamental Overview
Bitcoin rallied strongly last week after a failed attempt to assassinate the former US President Trump. The market reacted positively to the event because he’s been a supporter of the crypto industry and Trump’s odds of winning the election soared.
Last night, the price of Bitcoin dipped on the news that Biden dropped out of the presidential race probably on expectations that some other candidate could have higher chances of beating Trump, but as Biden endorsed Kamala Harris and others followed suit, Bitcoin erased the losses and rallied into a new high as the market doesn’t expect Harris to have any better chances of beating Trump.
Moreover, last week we got the news that the German government finally offloaded all of its Bitcoin holdings on July 12th, so that bearish driver is now in the rear-view mirror. Also, the old crypto exchange Mt. Gox has been repaying its old clients since the first week of July, so even this news should now be priced in.
So, we are left with lots of bullish drivers and very few bearish reasons. On the macro level, the soft-landing narrative strengthened as we continue to see inflation falling while the economy continues to grow. Last week, we got more positive data with US Retail Sales and Industrial Production beating expectations by a big margin.
So, all else being equal, we are getting rate cuts into resilient growth which should ultimately be bullish for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that Bitcoin eventually extended the rally into the key 67.275 resistance as the bearish drivers dissipated while the bullish reasons increased. The buyers will want to see the price breaking above the resistance to increase the bullish bets into a new cycle high. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely step in around the resistance to position for a drop back into the 60000 support.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price is struggling a bit at the resistance. If we get a pullback from these levels, we can expect the buyers to step back in around the 64000 level where we can find the confluence of the previous swing high, the trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the trendline to increase the bearish bets into the 60K level next targeting a breakout.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have some consolidation around the key resistance. We got a spike lower yesterday on the news that Biden dropped out from the presidential race, but the buyers bought the dip back quickly. There’s not much else to glean from this timeframe but the buyers will likely continue to pile in above the 67275 resistance, while the sellers should take back control with a break below the 65700 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
This week is pretty empty on the data front. We begin on Wednesday with the release of the US Flash PMIs. On Thursday, we will get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on Friday we conclude the week with the US PCE report.
