Fundamental Overview
Bitcoin suffered a notable correction in June despite a generally positive risk sentiment. Last week, we got a quick drop into a key support zone on the news that Mt. Gox will start distributing assets stolen from clients in a 2014 hack in July 2024 after years of postponed deadlines. Crypto traders have been aware of this event coming, although the timing was unknown.
Now, there’s a good argument that this event could keep a lid on Bitcoin as there’s some fear that people could lock in some gains once they get their Bitcoins. You can read a nice and comprehensive CNBC article here on this topic. In the big picture though, the price might remain supported amid a positive risk sentiment as we approach the first Fed's rate cut.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that Bitcoin eventually bounced from the key 60000 support zone and extended the rally into the 64000 level. If we get another flush lower, the buyers will step back in around the 60K level and the major trendline. The sellers will need the price to break below the trendline to turn the bias more bearish.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price broke above the downward trendline that was defining the bearish momentum into the key support. This might be another signal of a change in the sentiment and attract more buyers.
We can see that we now have a good support around the 62400 level where we can find the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the broken trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling below the support to position for a drop into the 60000 support zone.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the setup around the 62400 level. A break above the recent high at 63800 should give the buyers more conviction to increase the bullish bets into the 67250 level next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today we have the US Job Openings and Fed Chair Powell speaking. Tomorrow, we get the US ADP, the US Jobless Claims, the US ISM Services PMI and the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Thursday is going to be a US Holiday for Independence Day. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report.
