On the daily chart below, we can see that yesterday Bitcoin has reached the 25K high set in August 2022. Back then, we also had the market rallying on easing financial conditions and then got the famous Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole that crashed everything.
The pattern looks the same now as we’ve seen rallies in risk assets due to easing financial conditions on the back of moderating inflation, slower growth and strong labour market.
All these things combined were giving the market hope for a soft landing. Lately though, we started to see everything going in the opposite way with inflation remaining high and accelerating and strong data on the demand side that give the Fed some headache.
Yesterday risk assets and Bitcoin got hit by Fed member Bullard (hawkish, non-voter) that acknowledged he was open for 50 bps hike at the February meeting and he’s open to it also for the March meeting. Moreover, he sees the terminal rate higher than projected in December 2022.
The tides seem to be turning against Bitcoin and we should see lower lows ahead. We can also see that a divergence was created right at the top as price went parabolic printing a higher high, but the RSI didn’t follow.
On the 4 hour chart below, we can see for the buyers the last line of defence will be the support at 23541 that has confluence with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire strong upward move and the red long period moving average. A break to the downside will give the sellers even more conviction to target the support at 21509 or even lower lows.
On the 1 hour chart below, we can see the near term price action more closely. After hitting the 25K top the price fell hard as Fed’s Bullard floated the idea of more aggressive actions.
The moving averages are now pointing south and the sellers may want to wait for a pullback to the swing resistance at 24258 where we can also find the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire downward move and the red long period moving average.
That will be also a barrier for the buyers. If the price fails to pullback and breaks below 23200, then we should see sellers piling in and target the support at 21509.
