The price of WTI crude futures settled at $77.07. That is down $1.69 or -2.15%. The low price today reached $76.50. That move took the price below the 100 day moving average at $76.85 (blue line in the chart above). However, the price momentum could not be sustained and the price rotated modestly back to the upside.
On the downside, the next major target comes against the high price going back to Friday, March 31 at $75.70. That high preceded the OPEC+ meeting which saw surprise production cuts. The price gap over the weekend with the price low on that day reaching $79.
The price of crude oil has been able to close below the $79 level over the last 4 trading days. The high price both yesterday and today briefly moved above the $79 level to $79.18 and $79.07 today, but like the break below the 100 day moving average today, momentum could not be sustained.
Concerns about slower global growth are offsetting the production cuts in recent trade. As Adam points out, the concerns about First Republic and U.S. banking (including tighter lending standards) has pushed down the chance of a tightening to 75%. Granted it's still 75% but traders will be looking for that conditional pause in policy from the Fed.
Reminder: The Fed is in the quiet period until the right decision on Wednesday, May 3. So don't expect to hear anything from Fed officials directly at least.
