Crude oil prices are trading near the day's highs at $81.44, with the current price at $81.32, up $1.59 or 2.0%. Today's upward movement has pushed the price back above its 100-hour moving average , which currently stands at $80.48. Over the past two trading days, the price has oscillated above and below the 100-hour moving average. Although the earlier session high attempted to remain below this level, the past three hours have seen a sharp rally to the upside.
On the higher side, since OPEC's surprising decision to cut production, the price reached highs of $81.69 on April 3 and $81.81 on April 4. A move above these highs would push the price to its highest level since January 27, when it touched $82.48. Furthermore, other significant swing highs from January 18 and 23 were at $82.66 and $82.64, respectively.
If the price surpasses the resistance cluster ranging from $82.48 to $82.66, traders will likely target the 200-day moving average at $83.93 (refer to the green line in the chart below). Notably, crude oil prices have not traded above this moving average since August 30, 2022.
Fundamentally, the EIA says:
- crude output to rise 66,000 barrels per day to 12.54 million barrels per day in 2023 (versus rise of 56,000 barrels per day forecast last month)
- output to rise 21,000 barrels per day to 12.75 million barrels per day in 2024 (versus rise of 19,000 barrels per day forecast last month)
- total petroleum consumption to rise 100,000 barrels per day to 20.4 million barrels per day in 2023 (versus rise of 100,000 barrels per day last month)
- total petroleum consumption to rise at 300,000 barrels per day to 20.7 million barrels per day in 2024 (versus rise of 400,000 barrels per day last month)
