Fundamental Overview
It’s been a rough week for crude oil as the price dropped more than 6% on renewed growth fears amid a couple of soft US data. The delay by OPEC+ to increase production from October didn’t spark a rally but it helped to slow down the bearish momentum.
A lot now hinges on the US NFP report today as good data should trigger a relief rally, while weak figures will likely increase the bearish momentum on recessionary fears.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that crude oil broke below the recent low around the 71.60 level and extended the drop into the 69 handle. If the selloff extends further, we can expect the buyers to step in around the 67.68 level to position for a rebound into the 71.60 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 64 support zone.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. We can expect the sellers to keep leaning on the trendline to position for further downside, while the buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to start targeting new highs.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the bearish momentum waned a bit as the price action became rangebound. Today we have the US NFP report and good figures will likely trigger a rally, while weak data might increase the bearish momentum. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today we conclude the week with the US NFP report where the consensus sees 160K jobs added and a 4.2% unemployment rate.
