Fundamental Overview
As many other markets, crude oil bottomed out around last Monday as growth fears abated and started to slowly gain ground following catalysts like the appointment of the new Hamas leader and good US jobless claims.
Yesterday we got another strong wave of buying as we got a Fox report saying that Iran could have attacked Israel in less than 24 hours. Tonight we got another report saying that the attack wasn’t going to happen today which led to a slight pullback.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that crude oil rallied all the way back to the key resistance zone around the 80 level. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the zone to position for a drop back into the 72.50 low. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price broke above the first major downward trendline last Friday and increased the bullish momentum as more buyers piled in. The price is now trading around the key resistance zone and another major trendline. The buyers will want to see the price breaking above this strong zone to increase the bullish bets into new highs, while the sellers will look for a drop back into the lows.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. If we get a pullback, the buyers will likely lean on the trendline to position for a break above the resistance with a better risk to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today we get the US PPI data. Tomorrow, we have the US CPI report. On Thursday, we get the US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.
