Fundamental Overview
The fundamentals in the crude oil market haven’t changed much. The price action remains confined in a range between the 72.00 resistance and the 67.00 support as the market continues to weigh the future scenarios.
On one hand, we have the Trump’s victory which might be seen as bearish for fear of the tariffs and a slowdown in global growth as other countries could retaliate. You can throw there also a potential increase in supply and the geopolitical risk premium easing with the Trump’s administration.
On the other hand, we might have an increase in global growth expectations due to the global central bank easing, the Trump’s pro-growth policies and more recently the Chinese officials promising much more on the monetary and fiscal policy side.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that crude oil continues to trade in a range between the resistance around the 72.00 handle and the support around the 67.00 handle. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 78.00 handle next, while the sellers will look for a break lower to extend the drop into the 63.00 price area.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that price action inside the range has been a nightmare. It’s been all over the place not giving any clear technical level where to lean on. The best strategy here is to just sit on one’s hands and wait for a breakout or a strong catalyst.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor support zone around the 69.20 level where the price got rejected from several times in the past weeks. This might add as kind of a barometer for the short-term sentiment with the price staying above the zone being more bullish and below being more bearish. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today, we have the FOMC Policy Decision. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE data.
