The price of crude oil is trading up $1.41 or 1.73% today at $82.77. With 1Q quarter end approaching, the price is up a solid 15.53%. The price at the end of the year closed at $71.65. The gain is the largest since Q3 in 2023 when the price surged 28.52% only to then decline by -21.08% in Q4 2023 in up and down trading. If the pattern continues, we should expect a decline in Q2.
What might limit the upside in Q2 is the technical resistance currently being tested. Looking at the weekly chart above, the 100-week moving average comes in at $83.05 (blue line on the chart above). The moving average was tested last week at session highs, and is being approached once again today. The high price today has reached $82.85 just $0.20 short of that key technical target.
A move above the 100-week movie average would be the first breach since October 23, 2023, and increase the bullish bias from a technical perspective. Conversely, if the sellers can keep the lid on the pair against the level, rotation back toward the 50% midpoint at $81.37 would be the next target to get to and through on the downside to give sellers some comfort.
