The EURUSD has raced higher after the JOLTs job report. The vacancy rate is being touted as a indication of the slack coming out of the labor market.
Key Points about Vacancy Rate:
- Formula: Vacancy Rate = (Number of Job Openings / (Number of Employed Workers + Number of Job Openings)) × 100
- Indicator of Labor Demand: A higher vacancy rate indicates a high demand for labor, potentially signaling a strong economy or labor shortages. A lower rate is indicative of lower demand for labor. The vacancy rate is declining indicative of more slack in the labor markets.
- Industry and Sector Variations: The vacancy rate can vary widely across different industries, reflecting sector-specific labor demands and skills shortages.
- Impact on Wages: High vacancy rates may lead to wage increases as employers compete for a limited pool of qualified workers.
- Economic Cycle Reflection: During economic expansions, the vacancy rate typically rises as businesses look to hire more. During recessions, it tends to fall due to hiring freezes or layoffs.
Overall, the vacancy rate is a valuable metric for understanding labor market tightness and economic conditions. Fed's Waller spoke about the vacancy rate in a speech he gave back in January.
Looking at the EURUSD technically, it broke above the 100-hour moving average and topside channel trendline near 1.10608 (see chart above). The price has also extended above the highs for the week reached on Monday near 1.10766.
The price has moved closer to a swing area going back to August 20 between 1.10976 and 1.11042. Also on the topside is the 200-hour moving average at 1.11074. The high price has reached 1.1091 so far.
Getting above those levels would open the door for further upside momentum/bullish potential from a technical perspective.
Close support is now at 1.1076. More conservative support is back down at the 100 hour moving average of 1.10608. Staying above each keeps the buyers in play after the run higher today (PS. the 38.2% of the August range held support today after failing on the breaks below yesterday which was a positive in that it showed willing buyers above the low and at the 38.2% retracement).
