The EURUSD, like the GBPUSD, has stretched to new highs as European traders look toward the exits for the week. The move higher takes the price toward the high from June 2024 at 1.0915 and into a longer swing area between 1.0909 and 1.0918. That area will need to be broken to increase the bullish bias.
This week favored the idea of a cut by the Federal Reserve in September despite the step back in the PPI today. The CPI was lower. Shelter may be starting to rotate lower. The Univ. of Michigan today stayed near the lows after the sharp fall last month.
The initial jobless claims were lower but US holiday impact make seasonals hard to predict. The Fed Chair in his testimony hammered home that it is not only inflation now. To have a soft landing, focus must also be toward employment which he sees as slowing and not contributing to inflationary pressures. That is the market thinking that September is a nice point to start to lower rates. Mortgage or thinking that a December cut is also increasingly more likely.
In the euro zone, the ECB cut in June, but is also looking toward September. They may argue for up-and-down range trading. In which case, this is an area that traders may look to lean against. However, if the price were to move above this level the biases still is in favor of the buyers at this point. So be aware.
