The EURUSD has retraced all the CPI declines. Before the data, the EURUSD was trading at 114.34. The price moved down to 113.74. That level tested the 50% midpoint of the move up from last Thursday's low (ECB day - see pre-CPI post here outlining the targets). The low fell short of the rising 200 hour moving average at 1.1366.
Sellers turned the buyers, and after the price move back above the 1.1400 level for the second hourly bar after the release, shorts were squeezed further. The price moved above the 100 day moving average at 1.1416 and then moved above the 100 hour moving average at 1.1429. As I type, a new high for the day's being made at 1.14465.
It's a "fast break the other way" for the EURUSD as buyers steal the ball from the sellers, and the sellers are left chasing the market price back to the upside.
The EURUSD is not the only instrument seeing a rebound..
- The GBPUSD is also trading to a new session high after toying with a move below its 100 and 200 hour moving averages at 1.3539 and 1.3533.the low reach 1.3522 before rebounding higher
- After trading in a 40 pip trading range for 3+ days in the USDCHF, the pair broke above its high near 0.9263 and raised up to the next resistance area near 0.9288 and 0.92937 (the high reached 0.9296). Since then the price has tumbled back down, falling below a swing area at 0.9272 and 0.9277 (see earlier post here), and also back below the previous ceiling at 0.9263, and retests its 100 hour moving average at 0.92429.
- The S&P index has returned back to it 100 day moving average at 4574.07 (see earlier post here). The high price reached 4580.82, but has moved back below the 100 day moving average currently trading at 4572.09. I still believe that moving average will be a key barometer for the broader market today
- Crude oil made a run back to the upside after falling sharply. It currently trades back above the $91 level at $91.10. It traded as high as $91.38. The low for the day reached $89.05 on the spike low after the CPI before running back to the upside (see earlier post here).
Needless to say markets are volatile and the initial reactions after the stronger than expected CPI data have now squeezed intraday traders "the other way).
The common theme is it seems no one/market is immune from the sharp "fast breaks the other way".
