The EURUSD dipped yesterday as expectation for lower growth and a backdown from some ECB members from a 50 basis point hike (Rhen/Knot), pushed the price down.
However, the price did find support near a key swing area between 1.0633 to 1.0641 (high from May 5 was at 1.0641). The 50% of the move down from the April 21 high was near that level at 1.0642. The rising 100 hour moving average (blue line) was also in that area.
That cluster of support stalled the fall, and the price rallied into the close.
In trading today, after reaching another swing area at 1.0696 to 1.0706 in the early Asian session (see blue numbered circles in the chart above), the price rotated back to the downside into the European open, but once again found support against the rising 100 hour moving average (blue line).
The low price reached 1.0661 when the 100 hour moving average was at 1.0656. Early buyers against the 100 hour moving average kept the shorter-term/intermediate-term bias in the favor of the bulls/buyers.
What now?
The price is trading near its high for the day. The current price is at 1.0716. The high for the day in the London morning session reached 1.07185. Extend above the high would have traders looking toward the high price from Tuesday at 1.0748. Above that is a swing area going back to mid April to late April (see red numbered circles) at 1.07568 to 1.07605.
What is close risk now ?
Although the price in the US session has moved below the aforementioned swing area between 1.0696 and 1.0706, traders will continue to watch that area for support buyers. In fact, the failure below that level in the short-term is a reason to be more constructive/ hopeful for more upside momentum. Move below that level and a move back toward the 100 hour moving average cannot be ruled out. That moving average currently comes in at 1.06662 (and moving higher).
