On the daily chart below for EURUSD, we can see that with the latest rejection of the February high at 1.1033, we may have a possible double top in play. The price failed to break above the high as the US Retail Sales missed expectations across the board giving the market some recessionary vibes.

The buyers though keep leaning on the red long period moving average, so a break below that MA would be significant for the sellers. The next thing to watch is the US Jobless Claims report todays and the US PMIs tomorrow. In case the data deteriorates further, we are likely to see another selloff as the market may switch from the rates trade to the recession trade. On the other hand, benign data may keep weighing on the US Dollar US Dollar The US dollar, (symbol $, code USD) is the fiat currency of the United States of America (USD) and the most widely traded currency globally. It was introduced into the US in the late 18th Century, with paper notes not being distributed until the following century. The US dollar, also informally known as the greenback, is the world’s most foremost reserve currency, due in large part to the importance of the US economy on the world stage. Once backed by gold (in the 1900’s), the USD is now a purel The US dollar, (symbol $, code USD) is the fiat currency of the United States of America (USD) and the most widely traded currency globally. It was introduced into the US in the late 18th Century, with paper notes not being distributed until the following century. The US dollar, also informally known as the greenback, is the world’s most foremost reserve currency, due in large part to the importance of the US economy on the world stage. Once backed by gold (in the 1900’s), the USD is now a purel Read this Term and push the pair higher.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the 4 hour chart below, we can see that the price is trading within a rising channel. At the moment, the price is consolidating near the lower bound of the channel with a bearish bias given that the moving averages are crossed to the downside.

We can also see that the whole rally within the channel is diverging with the MACD, which is generally a sign of a weakening momentum, and we can generally see pullbacks or reversals. If this is a pullback, then the price should bounce from the lower bound of the channel and rally towards the upper bound. On the other hand, if the price breaks below the lower bound, then we may see a reversal and the price falling towards the 1.0759 support as the first target.

On the 1 hour chart below, we can see the current mini range. This is the one to watch in conjunction with the economic data results. If the data is benign and the price breaks above the range, then we should see the buyers piling in and the upper bound of the channel being targeted.

On the other hand, if the data deteriorates and the price breaks below the range and the lower bound of the channel, then the sellers should jump onboard and extend the selloff to the next support at 1.0759.