On the daily chart below for EURUSD , we can see that the market tried to break above the 1.1033 high a few weeks ago but failed as US Retail Sales missed expectations across the board and sent the market lower.
The buyers though leant on the red long period moving average and started to charge higher again as the US PMIs beat expectations and pushed further away recessionary fears for now. The price is now breaking above the 1.1033 high again and another failure may be a bad omen for the buyers going forward.
EURUSD technical analysis
On the 4 hour chart below, we can see that the last rally into the 1.1033 high was diverging with the MACD. This is a sign of a weakening momentum, and we can generally see pullbacks or reversals afterwards.
In this case, the market pulled back to the lower bound of the channel before consolidating a bit and then starting another rally. The moving averages on this timeframe are now crossed to the upside and we may see the buyers pushing the price all the way up to the upper bound of the channel.
On the 1 hour chart below, we can see that the range created near the bottom of the channel was breached yesterday and as expected the price rallied afterwards. The move now is a bit overstretched, so we may see a pullback before the next rally.
The first support zone for the buyers is the 1.1033 level and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The second one is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level where the price will also encounter the daily long period moving average. If the buyers fail to resume the uptrend from either of those areas, the sellers should regain control.
